Who wins the US election?

Who will win the 2024 presidential election?

I keep hearing this is the most important election in history, and it very well could be.

This November we the people must decide who the president will be. At this point we only have a few options. The incumbent, President Biden, and of course Donald Trump.

I’d like to believe the former democrat turned independent Robert Kennedy Jr. will be on the ticket but that is not obvious at this point. It seems he only made it on one state ballet so far in Utah. This is a shame seeing as he continues to be the most promising candidate.

I’m going to assume it will be a rematch of the 2020 election. Biden verse Trump. Biden won the electoral college against Donald 306 to 232. A similar margin that Donald Trump won against Hilary Clinton in 2016. “A massive landslide victory” as described by the 45th President Mr. Trump.

Biden managed to flip Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to capture the electoral win. Biden also dominated the popular vote. He was the first candidate in history to secure 81 million+ votes, compared to Trumps 74 million votes. The percentage ended up going 51.3% to 46.8% with Biden winning easily.

The 2020 election was one of the most participated votes since 1900. Over 159 million Americans voted. That’s almost 67% of the population. It’s likely the 2024 election will have at least that many voters if not more.

Bidens current approval rating is sitting around 38 percent today. Trumps average approval rating during his tenure in the White house was 41 percent. Both Presidents have very similar approval ratings by the press during their respective tenures.

The best way to get a feel for what people are thinking about leadership is to ask people, everyday people, on the street. It’s funny how the perception of people changes over time. The sentiment was always hateful towards Trump, but everyone realized he was good for business. On the other hand, Biden got into office on the fact that he was not Trump. He didn’t run on his policy or his tract record, just that he wasn’t Trump. And it worked. But can that work this time around?

We now have 4 years or Trumps actions archived and about 3 years or Bidens actions in the book. How do they compare? Trump won on the business front compared to Biden. Trump provided tax cuts, massive deregulation, lowered unemployment, and contributed to positive sentiment which overall was good for markets. Biden entered office at a time where the economy was going to slow no matter what he did. Biden also carries the blame for the record high inflation. Although, most of the inflation was created under President Trump, belief is the thing that matters in this game and Trump is viewed as a good thing for the economy. Biden is seen as bad for business by everyday folk. Under his leadership Americans seen gas prices soar along with everyday items like groceries and entertainment.

This perception of Biden by Americans gives Trump quite the advantage on this front. Afterall, Americans tend to vote with their paychecks and there’s no doubt that their dollars went further in a Trump economy.

On the foreign policy front it would seem Trump has another advantage. Biden had a disastrous exit from Afghanistan which he could never get away from. Although many earlier administrations before him hold responsibility, the narrative paints Biden as the scapegoat. Trump on the other hand had a couple notable foreign policy accomplishments. Mostly on trade with some diplomatic moments.

Trump Foreign policy

· Trans-Pacific Partnership withdrawal; a 12th century Asian favored trade deal.

· He banned Muslims from 6 countries for 90 days then commanded drone strikes on Syria.

· He withdrew from the 2015 Paris climate accord.

· He met with Putin at the G20

· He plays hardball with North Korea demanding “fire and fury” if threatened.

· Unwinds Obama DACA program for arriving refugees.

· Revisits the Iran deal trying to renegotiate eventually withdrawing.

· He recognizes Jerusalem as the capital city of Israel.

· Announces tariffs on China and starts an official trade war.

· Drone strikes on Soleimani of Iran and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi of Syria

· Trump withdraws troops from Syria and Afghanistan

· Declares national emergency to fight COVID 19

· Leaves the World Health Organization

Most of the foreign policy on the Biden front is aimed to strengthen the grip of the US over the rising threat of China and Russia as well as reversing some Trump era actions.

Biden foreign policy

· Biden rejoins the Paris climate agreement.

· Rejoins the World Health Organization

· Working on rejoining the TPP and the Iran nuclear deal.

· Funding the Ukraine war

· Extended and added more tariffs on China.

· Sanctioning Chinese technologies and businesses from importing

· Passes the CHIPS act which funds US companies to produce chips at home and restricts the advancement of Chinese tech.

· Executive order to ban US investments into Chinese technology

· Withdraws all troops from Afghanistan resulting in chaos.

· Unquestioned support of Israels attacks on Palestine

· Grown NATO support and funding.

As you can see both Trump and Biden have strengths and weaknesses on foreign policy however who has the advantage. If the status quo is the standard, then the advantage goes to Biden. Trump is much more of a disruptor and is quite unpredictable.

Another Biden administration we would likely see a tighter grip of the government when trying to protect its interests abroad. Especially when it comes to China. Although Trump started this tightening, it seems Biden is more focused on executing policy. Bidens foreign policy is defined by his China relations as Trump seems not to see the threat as clear.

I think both administrations will manage foreign policy pretty bad for what the Americans really need. So, it will not matter in the grand scheme of things. China will continue to grow just like the US will but at a much greater rate. As this continues to happen the US will sanction, attack, and exert any power it can to stop them from taking the reserve currency spot the US has held since the gold standard ended and the Petro-dollar was introduced.

So, what president will deal with that fact the best?

I’d say Trump, as he would provide leadership, action, and improve morale on the culture wars. However, what’s the actual difference?

When I see a war of biological viruses, military buildups, cyber-warfare, and currency all in the scope of a rising China. Our country is faced with an existential threat. The leader of the bureaucracy is not going to matter much if the individuals that make up a county are not strong.

This is the essence of our problem. Our people have grown weak. Top to bottom, financially, physically and most importantly mentally. China has been growing strong, although still poor comparatively, they have strong minds and values. Something that is glaringly obvious when you look at the U.S elections.

The elections themselves have become untrusted. We allow mail-in votes, a system that is designed to be abused along with super delegations which you need an expert to understand.

Then look at the candidates we “get to” choose from:

· Joe Biden vs Donald Trump

· Donald Trump vs Hillary Clinton

· Mitt Romney vs Barrack Obama

· Barrack Obama vs John McCain

· George Bush vs John Kerry

Out of these choices in the past couple decades are any of these guys honorable?

They all grew the national debt. They all increased the size of government. And they all put the government’s power above the power of the people.

With that being said. Who do I think will win?

Trump verse Biden. Id like to see another Trump presidency because he a shaker and mover and of course the underdog. So, I’m rooting for Trump to take his position make and make himself emperor for life. HAHA.

The more likely scenario which I think will happen. Biden wins again. Whether its rigged or he actually wins.

The powers that be want another Biden term, so it will be so.