Irans biggest fear is not Israel, it's Trump.

The Iranians want another Joe Biden presidency just like the rest of their advisories. Similar to Russian leaders like Putin and Xi Jinping of China. A Biden administration, is much easier to deal with along with easier to predict.

A second trump presidency would change the pace for current leadership and put immense pressure on the Iranian state. From security implications to economic sanctions the road for Iran will be quite bumpy if Trump takes back the oval office.

If this scenario plays out, the Iranians are due for civil unrest, economic disaster, as well as military implications that directly affect their security. A widening middle east conflict seems to be a much larger risk in recent months as Iran has positioned itself in the battlefield both ideologically and geographically.

There are a few ways Trump could unravel the Iranians in a way that the Biden administration is unlikely to pursue.

First off, its important to note the actions Trump took in his first term towards Iran. Remember, in 2018 Trump completely withdrew from the Iran Nuclear Deal. The “highly acclaimed” arms deal that the earlier president Barack Obama got signed. This deal more or less paid the Iranians to delay the process of enriching uranium and developing nuclear weapons. Although it’s proven to do the opposite in recent years. The Biden administration has yet to pick up the pieces of the deal and does not seem willing to try. Iran nuclear policy is non-existent amongst the current administration.

Trump also enacted sanctions on the Iranians as well as enforced them. Trump called it a “maximum pressure” campaign. President Trump reduced the Iran oil export to a record low 400,000 barrels per day. This devasted the Iranian government petrodollars which was about 70% of their revenues. Iran's then vice president Eshagh Jahangiri said the following year was one of the toughest since the Islamic republic’s start. In the time between 2018 and 2020 the national currency depreciated upwards of 600% to the USD.

Since 2020, after Joe Biden took office, the currency has recovered a bit and the Iranians managed to increase its oil exports. The oil being exported during Bidens term has hit an a six-year high with 1.56 million barrels being exported per day. This is mostly due to their reluctance to enforce the sanctions that are currently still in place. However, the Biden team insists they are. This of course wouldn’t go along with the Biden administrations so called “inflation reduction efforts” which they need the price of oil to stay low.

It’s almost guaranteed that oil exports will suffer again if Trump gets reelected. The Iranian Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture, will all noted that economic shock is in route if U.s leadership changes. Its also worth noting Iran's Parliament Research center has noted its currently running a 3.7 billion USD deficit. The current Iranian leadership says to brace for an economic collapse if the “maximum pressure” campaign is continued under Trump.

There are some other obscure indicators of disaster within the markets. Earlier this year Trump swept the Republican contests. In the same trading day, the Iranian rial currency dropped 20% on the news. This shows some fear amongst the business interest with the country.

A Trump win would also come along with on the ground security threats to the Iranian State.

The Iranians have not forget the loss of their beloved General Qassem Soleimani who was killed in 2020. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps elite fighter group Quds Force has been missing their former commander ever since and have taken significant leadership loss since. Soleimani was the architect of the Iran-backed militias that ran networks all throughout the middle East. This network known as the “axis of resistance” has been significantly crippled since his passing.

This airstrike marked a huge security risk for Iranian leadership. Coupled with a recent Israeli mission that devasted a couple Quds Force generals at a consulate in Damascus, the security threat the Iranians are feeling is quite real.

The Israel-Iran tensions that have built up and manifested into military action put Iranian officials in an even more vulnerable position. Any miscommunication or provocation could lead to an increased military threat by the state of Israel of even a direct attack conducted by the United States if Trump is in charge.

Along with military and economic risk. The Iranian front against its own people will also face pressure if the presidency changes hands. Iranian Parliament held elections earlier this year. Record low voter turnout proved to be the case. Official turnout was recorded at just 41%. In Tehran, the capital, it was as low as 24%. This is the lowest recorded in history.

Before 2020 voter turnout was recorded at normal rate of 60 and 70 percent. Declining voter rate can generally be construed as a legitimacy crisis. If people don’t believe in a government, they simply won’t participate. This can lead to all sorts of problems at home. Unrest, lawlessness, and increased crime pressure the government.

This inevitably leads the government to increase pressure on its own citizens right back. This takes form with laws tightening like internet censorship and harsher enforcement of Sharia Law. Media outlets will cater to the need for ultra conservative leaders and alternative domestic policies that serve the people.

The absolute last thing the Iranian State needs is Trump presidency. It would deliver an immediate economic blow, a larger security threat, along with unhappy campers at home. The most impactful thing the Iranian leaders can do is to do everything in their power to get Joe Biden elected. Simply as that. If they fail, I suggest leaving the country the morning after the election.