Danger in the Red Sea: How Houthis and Iran Are Changing Global Commerce

The American relationship with the Houthis has never been kind. However, America and Yemen opened diplomatic relations in 1947, and until 2015 had a good relationship. We had an embassy there, we provided humanitarian aid to Yemeni citizens, and even after 9/11 Yemen was a crucial defense partner.

But alas, after a brutal war, Houthis took control of northern Yemen in 2015 shortly after the US Embassy closed down. Prior attacks such as the bombing of the embassy in 2008, and later threats which actually led to the closure of the embassy for a few days were present before 2015, but with the collapse of the governing body at the time hit the last nail in the coffin.

The American backed coalition retaliated on the Houthis and the conflict is still ongoing. US Army Special Forces were even deployed to the Saudi Arabia-Yemen border to help defeat the Houthi rebels in 2018. Although this conflict is still ongoing today, American military presence in Yemen remains obscure. America however, still plays a large role in the non-Houthi controlled areas of Yemen; providing aid and supporting the current government in Yemen, the Republic of Yemen Government (ROYG) .

The current uptick in attacks on Israel, and on ships heading towards Israel from the Houthis has gotten America involved. On 08 October 2023, the day after the infamous Hamas attack on Israel, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin directed the Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group (CSG-12) to the Eastern Mediterranean in response.

On 19 October 2023, US Navy destroyer USS Carney (DDG 64) encountered a large and sustained barrage, shooting down 4 cruise missiles and 15 drones over a period of 9 hours, according to a US official familiar with the situation.

This was the start of America's defense of Israel. This attack was not directed at USS Carney or the Carrier Strike Group 12 (CSG-12) and the target wasn't actually known. However due to the conflict between Israel and Gaza-controlled Hamas the attack was intercepted before they found their final destination.

While missiles and drones are still being fired at Israel from the Houthis, their main target has seemed to shift from ground attacks on Israel to targeting ships supposedly headed for Israel. Let's be very clear, these are civilian vessels. Owned, operated, and flagged by nations all over the world. The ships targeted are not only “Israel bound” but also ships that have nothing to do with Israel are being attacked. Not only civilian vessels, USS Carney was directly targeted by drones launched by Houthis.

On 3 December 2023, both USS Carney and non-military civilian owned commercial ships were attacked by drones and missiles.

According to a post on X by US Central Command;

“the Arleigh-Burke class guided-missile destroyer USS Mason (DDG 87) was responding to a mayday call from the Marshall Islands-flagged tanker Motor Vessel Ardmore Encounter, which was under attack from Houthi forces. These forces first attempted to board the tanker via skiffs. When this was unsuccessful, a pair of missiles were fired from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen at the vessel, which both missed. While responding to the distress call, the Mason shot down an unmanned aerial vehicle also launched from Houthi-controlled areas. The UAV was heading directly towards the Mason and was shot down in self-defense.”

This brings forward a very important question. How are these ships being targeted? More crucial to the US, How are American military ships being targeted?

The first answer is quite simple actually. The civilian owned vessels are all registered and operating the Automatic Identification System or AIS. This is a system that ships use to make sure they don't crash into another ship among other things. AIS is intended to assist a vessel's watch standing officers and allow maritime authorities to track and monitor vessel movements. This is a great tool for authorities and ship crews for any number of reasons. Tracking down a ship in distress, monitoring for illegal activity, fleet fishing and monitoring, and it also helps with navigation of the seas.

The only issue is that information provided by AIS is exactly what you need to blow one up. You get to see the position, the route the ship will take and other crucial information needed in a strike. Houthis have been tapping into this network to find targets.

The thing about AIS is that military ships don’t use it regularly. Maybe in high traffic areas to avoid collisions or when ship movements don’t need to be hidden. USS Carney at the time the attack occurred was not using the Automatic Identification System. The USS Carney’s last reported AIS location was on December 12, 2022, on the east coast of the United States.

Houthis don't have access to ground based radar systems capable of finding and tracking US ships. They were all destroyed in 2016 after Houthis took control of the Red Sea coastal area. Iran however does have access to radar systems capable of intercepting communications of US Naval ships and they just so happen to have some spying technology on an Iranian ship parked close by.

“US Central Command believes that the Houthis are assisted by Iran in locating US warships in the Red Sea. The Iranians have positioned a spy ship (masquerading as a civilian ship), the MV Saviz. According to US government sources, the MV Saviz is equipped with intelligence domes and antennas. The ship carries 3 speedboats which provide untraceable communications with Yemen.” Asia Times reported on Dec 25th 2023.

So what does all this mean? Well in short Iran is providing Houthis with locations of American warships and civilian commercial vessels. Iran is also supplying much of the drones and anti-ship ballistic missiles being used in these attacks. The attacks are increasing in size and frequency and seem to only be escalating.

On the other side America will not back down. We have the best Navy in the world and a few drones and missiles will not be the end of American presence in the Red Sea.

Since the first attack in October dozens more have occurred with a swift response from US Navy vessels in the area, providing assistance and responding to distress signals of ships from all nations. Just yesterday Central Command posted this.

“U.S. assets, to include the USS LABOON (DDG 58) and F/A-18 Super Hornets from the Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group, shot down twelve one-way attack drones, three anti-ship ballistic missiles, and two land attack cruise missiles in the Southern Red Sea that were fired by the Houthis over a 10 hour period which began at approximately 6:30 a.m. (Sanaa time) on December 26. There was no damage to ships in the area or reported injuries.”

America is committed to keeping shipping lanes safe for all. In fact Naval presence has only increased in these times. The two main Destroyers that have been involved in most of the action USS Carney and USS Mason, are Aegis-equipped Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers. Probably one of the last ships on earth you would want to pick a fight with. These two have shot down and responded to more distress signals than nearly any other American vessel in the last few months.

Let me be clear, these are not unsinkable and given time and sufficient missile and drone attacks they will run out of defenses and worse case we lose a ship and a few hundred Americans. Best case they run out of ammo and are temporarily out of service to resupply defenses. These ships need backup and/or given time to go resupply. Lucky you're sailing on an American ship and you've got friends.

America has placed two Carrier Strike Groups in the area. The Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group (IKECSG) and the newest Super Carrier, Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group in the surrounding area giving superior air power to the United States and her allies.

America recently revealed a plan to protect ships in the area, known as “Operation Prosperity Guardian”. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced during a recent trip to the Middle East. The operation is a new multinational security operation under the umbrella of the Combined Maritime Forces and the leadership of Task Force 153, which focuses on security in the Red Sea.

“Austin discussed the importance of freedom of navigation in international waterways and the threat the Houthi attacks against commercial shipping in the Red Sea pose to world commerce. Between 10 and 15 percent of global shipping flows through the Red Sea, "and these attacks are impacting global trade and commerce, negatively impacting the economies of nations around the world and costing commercial shipping firms billions of dollars," Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said.

The main goal of the operation is to protect ships transiting the Red Sea area and ensure that these Houthi attacks don’t result in global economic suffering.

Whether they succeed in this remains to be seen, however, I interpret this as a step in the right direction towards stabilizing the Red Sea area in its current state.

It remains unclear to me why on earth we don’t just target the Houthis and their launch sites and the Iranian ship providing information on US Navy Vessels instead of playing air defense for ships. Although I’m sure someone in the military command gets paid to answer that question.

I'll end with this, the attacks on global shipping routes by Houthis have already had a drastic impact on global shipping and economy, and I pray for the American sailors whose job it is to protect those ships.