Americas Ticket out of Ukraine

As the Biden administration reconfirms and re-reconfirms unveiling support for Ukraine, public opinion seems to be wavering not only in America but all over the world. Doubt is rising in western minds about the ability of Ukraine to keep Russia back for much longer. Recent losses like the city of Avdiivka after a brutal campaign and subsequent withdrawal from the area by Ukrainian forces left many questions to be answered. Can Ukraine hold the current line? Do they have enough people to fight? How much more equipment and money do they need?

Former president, Donald Trump’s campaign for the 2024 Presidential election is making waves across the world. Despite not actually being the official Republican candidate the prospect of Trump winning the election has drastically changed how the world views the next four years going. Countries are delaying decision making to want to wait to see if he wins and what he does, while others are convinced of his win and are already preparing for what America's new leader may or may not do.

Trump has been very outspoken against NATO and certain countries that don’t hold up their end of the bargain. Will Trump decide to leave NATO? During his presidency, Trump fought hard against China the policies they were coasting on, which ultimately led to the US-China Trade War. It seems likely that he will fight just as hard this time around, so probably more trade restrictions between both nations. How will Europe deal with a leader that will destroy partnerships over bad arrangements? Will we see a new era of conflict emerge between the United States and Europe? What will Trump do with the Russo-Ukrainian war? Or Israel for that matter?

What will Trump do with Ukraine? We’ve all heard Trump say he would end the war “within 24 hours” The question is how but i'm not here to answer that one, we will have to wait and see. Lets just look at some numbers and see how you think Trump would react as president.

“The Government of Ukraine, the World Bank Group, the European Commission, and the United Nations currently estimates that as of 31 December 2023 the total cost of reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine is $486 billion over the next decade, up from $411 billion estimated one year ago.”

“Since the war began, the Biden administration and the U.S. Congress have directed more than $75 billion in assistance to Ukraine, which includes humanitarian, financial, and military support, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.”

“The UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) has verified that conflict-related violence in this two-year period killed more than 10,000 civilians and injured nearly 20,000. The actual numbers are likely significantly higher.”

“The total number of Ukrainian and Russian troops killed or wounded since the war in Ukraine began 18 months ago is nearing 500,000, U.S. officials said”

Now with all the costs both human life and material cost in reaching numbers that haven’t been seen in decades. I believe Trump sees the whole situation as a loss for everyone involved. Everyone has lost something in this war and bringing an end to this conflict should be addressed immediately upon inauguration.

The reality is, this war can be ended but Ukraine wont get all their territory back and Russia wont get all of Ukraine. Something that currently both countries seem dead set on achieving.

Can Trump negotiate a peace deal? I believe he can, but it will come at convincing the two sides to actually sit down and talk. This task has been nearly impossible since just after the war started. Zelensky has repeated again and again that he refuses to negotiate until his demand of Russian withdrawal from Ukraines pre 2014 borders is met. This is unreasonable and almost laughable to Russia as Ukraine can’t actually do anything about it. All their efforts have failed and a new border is becoming pretty well established. Putin seems willing to come to peace talks and his army isn’t going anywhere. From the outside there is an obvious issue here Zelensky. Trump will either have to convince him or force him to come to the negotiating table. This is something that is not impossible, the Biden admin just refuses to try and pursue peace until Zelensky’s demands are met.

I have some faith that Trump could negotiate a peace deal to end the war in Ukraine, the question is if he gets to try at the end of this year. Do you think Trump can end this war as fast as he said?